The Milky Way is home to millions of potentially habitable planets — and approximately four of them may harbor evil alien civilizations that would invade Earth if they could, new research paper suggests.
The new paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, asks an unusual question: What are the odds that humans could one day contact a hostile alien civilization that’s capable of invading our planet?
Alberto Caballero, the author of the bizarre study and a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain. Caballero began by looking back at human history before looking out to the stars.
To reach his conclusion, Caballero counted the number of countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022.
He found that a total of 51 of the world’s 195 nations had launched some sort of invasion during that period. (The U.S. sat at the top of the list, with 14 invasions tallied).
He then weighted each country’s probability of launching an invasion based on that country’s percentage of the global military expenditure. (Again, the U.S. came top with 38% of global military spending.)
From there, Caballero added each country’s individual probability of instigating an invasion, then divided the sum by the total number of countries on Earth, ending up with what he describes as “the current human probability of invasion of an extraterrestrial civilization.”
According to this model, the current odds of humans invading another inhabited planet are 0.028%. However, Caballero wrote, that probability refers to the current state of human civilization — and humans aren’t currently capable of interstellar travel.
If current rates of technological advancement hold, then interstellar travel wouldn’t be possible for another 259 years, Caballero calculated using the Kardashev scale(opens in new tab) — a system that categorizes how advanced a civilization is based on its energy expenditure.
Assuming the frequency of human invasions continues to decline over that time at the same rate that invasions have declined over the last 50 years (an average of minus 1.15% per year, according to Caballero’s paper), then the human race has a 0.0014% probability of invading another planet when we potentially become an interstellar , or Type 1, civilization 259 years from now.
“I did the paper based only on life as we know it,” he said. “We don’t know the mind of extraterrestrials.”
For more go to Live Science
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